Ukraine’s EU Integration and the Future of Polish Transport

by Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and Warsaw Enterprise Institute

Ukraine’s transport sector has effectively integrated into the EU single market even before the country’s formal accession — with the war accelerating this process. For now, Poland remains Ukraine’s central transit and logistics hub:

• The liberalisation of road transport under the EU–Ukraine agreement has significantly changed the structure of bilateral transport: the share of Ukrainian carriers increased from 62% in 2021 to 92% in October 2023.

• Ukraine’s eCherha system reduced the average waiting time for trucks by 24–70%, depending on the border crossing point.

• Cross-border rail freight volumes increased by around 20% in 2024. The integration of Ukrainian transport links into the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) mobilised significant EU funding, including a €73.5 million Connecting Europe Facility Transport grant for the construction of the standard-gauge Mostyska–Sknyliv railway project.

Looking toward the 2026–2030 horizon, the trajectory of Poland–Ukraine connectivity will depend heavily on the pace of EU accession, the duration of the war, and the systematic alignment of regulatory frameworks.

The report strongly recommends that both governments and the European Union prioritise establishing a level playing field by harmonising road transport regulations, accelerating railway market liberalisation, and combating institutional corruption in Ukraine.

For the private sector, the anticipated shift from road to intermodal transport presents a strategic “win-win” opportunity for joint investments in cross-border logistics hubs and terminal infrastructure, provided that regulatory predictability and data-driven border management are firmly established.