Methane Emissions in Ukraine’s Energy Sector: Underestimated Challenge and Opportunity

by Green Deal Ukraina

Methane is a short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gas. When assessed using a 20-year global warming potential (GWP20), methane represents over half of Ukraine’s near-term climate impact. Methane’s climate impact is defined by its short atmospheric lifetime and extremely high near-term warming power. Although it remains in the atmosphere for only about a decade, methane is over 80 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year horizon. This makes methane mitigation one of the fastest and most cost-effective climate measures available for Ukraine in the critical 2025–2045 window.

Methane accounts for approximately 27% of Ukraine’s total greenhouse gas emissions (63 Mt CO₂- eq in 2023 under GWP100), with the energy sector responsible for about 71% of national methane emissions. Oil and gas operations represent the largest source, followed by coal mining and waste management.

While absolute methane emissions declined during 2022–2023 due to war-related disruptions, these reductions reflect economic contraction rather than structural mitigation and risk rebounding during post-war reconstruction.