by Halyna Dovhaliuk, Specialist at the Centre for Environmental Initiatives "Ecoaction"
7 November 2026
The UN climate conference, in which Ukraine will also participate, will begin in Antalya, Turkey, on November 9. The main issue to be discussed is reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The world is reducing emissions too slowly to avoid the dangerous consequences of climate change. Despite international agreements and the rapid development of renewable energy, countries continue to use large amounts of coal, oil, and gas.
And while for most countries around the world a global reduction in the use of fossil fuels is a matter of environmental sustainability and combating the climate crisis, for Ukraine it is a matter of survival and energy security. After all, revenues from fuel sales are one of the sources of funding the Russian budget, which finances the war.
Therefore, Ukraine has good reason to insist that the international discussion on phasing out fossil fuels also addresses the issue of financing the Russian war.
The world must react faster
A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), released in October 2026, states that a global temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is virtually inevitable. The challenge now is to make this increase as small and short-lived as possible and to return to the 1.5°C limit by the end of the century.
At the same time, the situation is not hopeless. According to UNEP, renewable energy is developing faster than previously predicted, and climate policies have already helped reduce emissions in many countries and sectors of the economy. However, the pace of these changes must be significantly accelerated.
Under current climate policies, the average global temperature could rise by 2.8°C over the course of this century. Even if countries fully implement their climate commitments, the projected level of warming would be around 2.6°C.
To limit global warming and maintain the possibility of returning to the 1.5°C threshold by the end of the century, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030, by 45% by 2035, and by 69% by 2040 compared with 2025 levels.
One of the key tasks remains the phase-out of fossil fuels, since their combustion is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions related to human activity.
What countries have already agreed and why it is not enough
In December 2023, at the UN climate conference in Dubai, nearly 200 countries agreed for the first time on the need to transition away from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) in their energy systems. This was a major step in international climate policy. Countries also called for tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the average annual rate of energy-efficiency improvements by 2030.
However, the agreement reached in Dubai, although it set the direction of the energy transition, did not establish a single mandatory timetable for all countries. An attempt to create such a roadmap was made at the next UN climate conference in 2025 in Belém, Brazil. A group of countries advocated for this. However, it was not possible to include this decision in the official final document. After the conference, Brazil, as the host country of the summit, began separate work on the roadmap outside the formal negotiation process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
So, despite international recognition of the need for an energy transition, countries still need to agree on more concrete approaches to implementing the decisions already made. And this should be addressed at the current climate conference. The main question now is not what new promises countries will make, but how they will fulfil the commitments they have already made.
How fossil fuels continue to generate revenue for Russia
Despite international sanctions and repeated statements about reducing purchases, Russia remains one of the world's largest exporters of fossil fuels and continues to receive significant revenues from their sale.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia has earned more than €1 trillion in fossil-fuel export revenues during the four years of the full-scale war. In the last year alone, this figure reached €193 billion. Although this is 19% less than the year before and 27% less than the level recorded before the full-scale invasion, oil and gas revenues still form the lion's share of the Russian budget, from which military operations against Ukraine are directly financed.
Sanctions forced Russia to reorient its logistics, but did not deprive it of markets. During the fourth year of the invasion, China, India, and Turkey accounted for 93% of Russian crude oil purchases.
Russia also has a significant historical contribution to climate change. It is estimated that Russia's total historical greenhouse gas emissions from 1850 to 2025 amounted to about 185 billion tonnes, making it the third-largest emitter in the world.
Therefore, Russian fossil fuels are an important issue both in terms of climate responsibility and Ukraine's security.
Why abandoning fossil fuels is important for Ukraine itself
Russian attacks on power plants and electricity grids have shown how vulnerable an energy system that relies heavily on large, centralised facilities can be. Therefore, Ukraine must not only rebuild what has been destroyed but also decide what its energy system will look like in the decades to come.
However, an important question arises: are we creating a new dependence on fossil fuels as we rebuild? After all, the energy infrastructure in which Ukraine is investing today will operate for decades. Therefore, solutions that help overcome the current energy shortage must also be evaluated in terms of their long-term consequences.
One promising direction is the development of decentralised renewable energy. Solar power plants, together with energy-storage systems, can provide electricity to hospitals, businesses, and other critical facilities even during disruptions to the centralised power supply. At the same time, such solutions help reduce fossil-fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the development of renewable energy should not come at any cost. The construction of new solar and wind power plants must take into account their impact on natural ecosystems and comply with environmental protection requirements. Otherwise, in trying to solve one environmental problem, we risk creating another.
What Solutions Does Ukraine Need at the Antalya Conference?
For Ukraine, these negotiations are an opportunity to remind the world that its dependence on fossil fuels has not only climate-related but also security consequences. Therefore, the official position of the Ukrainian delegation should be based on two fundamental priorities.
1. A clear plan to reduce fossil fuel use and increase sanctions pressure
Our priorities should include supporting a concrete plan for a gradual transition away from coal, oil, and gas, with clear timelines and practical steps. At the same time, Ukraine should consistently raise the issue of reducing international dependence on Russian energy resources and strengthening sanctions on their export.
2. Russia's climate damage responsibility
War causes additional greenhouse gas emissions through military activity, fires, and the destruction of infrastructure. It is necessary not only to quantify this damage but also to create legal mechanisms for compensation. In particular, our country must establish a legislative framework that will allow climate-related damage to be included in the international Register of Damage for Ukraine. At the same time, the issues of Russia's historical and current contribution to global warming and its financial responsibility must be raised during climate negotiations.
Ultimately, the results of the climate summit for Ukraine should be assessed not only by the number of declarations adopted. Much more important is whether they bring the world closer to a genuine reduction in fossil-fuel use, help reduce dependence on Russian energy resources, and give countries greater opportunities to transition to clean energy.
For Ukraine, these issues have long gone beyond climate policy. They directly concern the country's security, economy, and future recovery.
This text was originally published in Ukrainian on the website of Dzerkalo Tyzhnia (ZN.UA)