Organisers: Centre for Economic Strategy and German Economic Team

Format: online

The difficult situation on the frontline and a new wave of massive shelling have increased the vulnerability of Ukraine’s economy in 2025. Adding to this is the uncertainty surrounding external support due to the geopolitical situation in the United States. At the same time, Brussels is already seeking ways to cover Ukraine’s budget deficit, which could reach $19 billion in 2026.

During the event, leading Ukrainian and international analytical teams will provide their views on key macroeconomic indicators for the end of 2025 and 2026. These forecasts will also be compared with government estimates. After that, participants will discuss what to expect from the Ukrainian economy in the coming months, how prices may change, and what will happen to the exchange rate.

Event agenda:

12:00 – 12:15 Presentation of government and analytical forecasts, Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the CES;

12:15 – 13:25 Discussion and Q&A:

Representatives of analytical companies:

• Oleksandra Betliy, Leading expert at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting;

• Olena Bilan, Chief Economist at Dragon Capital and member of the CES Supervisory Board;

• Oleksiy Blinov, Head of Analytics and Research at Forbes Ukraine;

• Dmytro Krukovets, Expert in macroeconomic analysis, KSE Institute;

• Olga Pindyuk, Economist at the Vienna Institute for Economic Research;

• Alina Slyusarchuk, Head of CEEMEA Economics at Morgan Stanley;

• Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, Head of Macroeconomic Research at ICU Group;

• Oleksandr Parashchiy, Head of Research at Concorde Capital (tbc);

Comments and overview of official forecasts:

• Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Deputy Governor at the National Bank of Ukraine.

13:25 –13:30 Summary of the discussion by the German Economic Team.

Moderator: Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy.